MACRON MID-WAY; FIRST PRESS CONFERENCE

HERE WE GO AGAIN...

Workers' Day parade in Paris

President Macron’s long-awaited response to the Yellow-Vest weekly demonstrations was set for April 15th but was cancelled at the last minute when Notre Dame Cathedral burst into flames and took center stage. The postponed televised presidential address finally took place ten days later. In the meantime, on Easter Saturday, the Gilets Jaunes (GJ) returned to the streets, breaking the brief spell of national unity around the near-fatal fire of the Notre Dame cathedral in Paris. It was back to the business of demonstrating and disrupting.

Well before April 15 the GJ had already announced that they considered the president’s upcoming message, following three months of Grand Debates and analysis of the citizens’ Books of Grievances, totally irrelevant to their cause. Not only has the movement hardened – egged on by a core of radicalized agitators – but it has taken on a nastier tone as well. What else to call their cruel placards and police taunts of “Go Kill Yourselves!” after the number of police suicides had just climbed to 28 for this year alone? And why sneer at the generous donations for the restoration of Notre Dame, which they loudly denounce as further proof that the rich have too much money and that the government cares more about old stones than about people?

Boarded-up restaurant La Rotonde

It’s a far cry from the game-changing Gilets Jaunes movement that began in November 2018 and created a groundswell of public support for their demands of relief for the overtaxed working and middle class who feel disproportionately squeezed by Macron’s tax policies, and for reinstatement of the wealth tax which the newly elected president Macron had eliminated, earning him the sobriquet of President of the Rich. Today’s GJ movement has lost much of its moderate base and its civility, and its surviving hardcore of brawlers has welcomed the dreaded Black Bloc anarchists (who call themselves anti-capitalists) in its demonstrations “because their violence draws attention to our cause.” One example: in mid-March the Black Bloc, cheered on by the GJ, had set fire to the famous Fouquet's "capitalist" restaurant on the Champs Elysées because former president Nicolas Sarkozy had celebrated his election there, so on May 1st they targeted La Rotonde restaurant on the Boulevard du Montparnasse because that is where Macron had celebrated his win. This time, however, the restaurant had been boarded up in anticipation and sustained no damage

We can only hope that this unholy alliance with the Black Bloc will spell the beginning of the end of the newly radicalized Gilets Jaunes movement that has lost its way.  

SPEECH AND PRESS CONFERENCE

Macron press conference at Elysée Palace

As for President Macron’s postponed televised speech, it finally took place on April 25th. After a one-hour introduction wherein he said he had learned a lot from the Debates with mayors and from the Gilets Jaunes and their “understandable” concerns, he outlined a series of measures that included another €5 billion of tax cuts (in addition to the €10 billion allocated in December), and a more equitable income tax distribution with a new tranche at the low end and two new higher tranches at the upper end. It also included a guaranteed pension of €1000/month to those retirees who currently receive less than that; financial help for single mothers; smaller classes (maximum 24 pupils); a more decentralized government and some other accommodations that are meant, in his words, to put the “human” back into the center of his policies. No details on how this would be paid for, other than “by eliminating some of the fiscal niches for certain businesses” and other solutions yet to be determined. More specific on what he did NOT want, he refused again to reinstate the ISF wealth tax, arguing that he scrapped this tax for a period of two years to stimulate the economy and then measure the results at the end of 2019. If these results are disappointing, the ISF will be reinstated in 2020. On immigration: France is following the EU rules of fair distribution of refugees across the EU Schengen space (‘free movement of people and goods’) and will not take on more. The GJ demand for a Citizens’ Referendum (RIC) was rejected in favor of an RIP (Referendum in Participation with Parliament). He also urged French people to “work more” in order to improve their pension at the retirement age of 62 – or work longer since we live longer.

During the subsequent press conference with 200 journalists that ran for an hour and a half, little of substance was added. Most notably, it showed Macron’s talent for public speaking and for poetic phrases such as “the art of being French,” which means… what exactly? 

A same-day interactive Harris poll following the press conference indicated that 63 percent of the French were “not convinced” by Macron’s arguments. Later polls confirmed this finding, adding that the lack of confidence in president Macron is not limited to his tax policies (the GJ's principal issue) but shows a general mistrust that his current roadmap can lead to the reforms he promised.     

On May 1, international Workers’ Day and a national holiday in France, all French unions traditionally gather in Paris for a big joint march that tends to be more festive than combative. This year, the Gilets Jaunes and their new Black Bloc friends decided to join this Workers’ march which, inevitably, resulted in burning garbage cans, smashed windows, police clashes with clouds of teargas, and the unions’ message getting lost in the general mayhem. 

A LOOK BACK 

Brief Recap of a novel Movement

What started last November as a Facebook-driven popular revolt against a 23 percent increase in fuel tax (quickly rescinded) and the demand for fiscal and social justice, has evolved into a set of non-negotiable demands expressed in increasingly violent protest marches. The problem is that the resignation of President Macron is one of those demands and that the original protest movement has morphed into a total rejection of authority and the status quo. Nothing less than a complete makeover will satisfy the Gilets Jaunes today.

Never before, however, have French street demonstrations been so violent and so costly to the State and individuals, so last month President Macron announced a Loi anti-casseurs, a set of strong measures against the black-clad thugs whose destructive rampages have marked these demonstrations. Mayors of targeted cities ordered the Saturday shutdown of their city centers to prevent vandalism, but it was not enough to protect people and property from the violence and blind destruction of these protests. Marchers managed to overrun the police to get into the prohibited historic centers of old Avignon, Bordeaux, and Toulouse where nine people were injured recently, eight of them police. 

Much of this violence, however, has been perpetrated against the poor, such as those minimum-wage earners who sold newspapers at the kiosks on the Champs Elysées and were torched out of their workplace and their jobs, or small-business owners who can barely survive when forced to close shop repeatedly on Saturdays. Yet, little is said about this in the press, while in private the usual comment is a Gallic shrug or Ah, Madame, c’est compliqué. 

To foreign eyes, it may not look all that complicated until we realize that street protests are a protected right in France and considered a form of free speech. Hence, part of Macron’s recent Loi anti-casseurs that specifically aimed at barring those known to have perpetrated violence against persons or property was voted down by the Constitutional Court because it was considered a denial of free speech and of the right to demonstrate. Only a judge (and not a police prefect) can bar a person who has already been convicted of such violence, the Court ruled, not those who were not convicted or are awaiting trial. It is up to the police to keep troublemakers under control, and not for the courts to prevent protesters from demonstrating. 

A spokesman for the police union saw this decision as a validation for the hooligans and an endangerment of the riot police. The sharp increase in suicides among law enforcement officers -26 police and two gendarmes since January of this year - testifies to the extreme stress they are under and their frustration at the lack of means to respond effectively. With police at the breaking point after five months of weekend riot duty, Interior Minister Christophe Castaner could do no better than promise more suicide-prevention programs and long-term psychological support for stressed officers, and ask for greater vigilance on the part of their superiors. 

While the latest polls raised Macron's approval rating by five points (back to 32%, where it was before the December riots), his disappointing speech and press conference may well be reflected in the upcoming elections for the European Parliament where his worst enemy, the eurosceptic Marine Le Pen and her extreme-right party are expected to make big gains to the detriment of Macron's LREM party. 

In the meantime, French riot police grit their teeth, the government tries desperately to keep the lid on while zigzagging on the narrow path between democracy and suppression, and we all keep our fingers crossed every Saturday.


ERRATUM: An error has crept into this blog. The number of police suicides for 2019 is 28, not 38 as previously reported.

NOTRE DAME ON FIRE !

In the early evening of April 15^th, when we were all waiting for President Macron’s televised address to the nation in response to the Gilets Jaunes crisis, a picture of Notre Dame de Paris in flames suddenly flashed onto our screens. Within minutes, the Elysée Palace announced the cancellation of Macron’s speech and his hastily arranged visit to the site of the devastating fire that nearly destroyed the 850-year old Gothic cathedral. The image of this ultimate symbol of Paris engulfed in flames will be forever etched in our minds, like the pictures of the twin towers burning in New York. When the tall spire collapsed and fell through the roof an audible gasp went through the crowds, while those of us who stared at our television screens still hoped this was just a movie scene. Sadly, it was not, and Notre Dame, which survived the French revolution and two world wars, was surely dealt its greatest blow ever right in front of us. 

The scene was unreal and unbearable. Not our Notre Dame! – this essential part of French history, its culture and its literature, which the French hold dearer than any other monument. Please, not this place where kings were anointed and Napoleon crowned himself emperor in 1804; where Joan of Ark was sanctified and her rehabilitation process was held; where the Crown of Thorns that sainted king Louis IX purchased in 1239 after one of his crusades is kept; where funeral masses for French presidents and the end of two world wars were celebrated, and where sorrows were soothed in the aftermath of national tragedies, most recently after the November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris. For French Catholics it is the mother church where the great and the humble have come to kneel in prayer for centuries; for the non-religious a Gothic jewel and architectural masterpiece; for tourists a must-see and photo opportunity. For all, the heart and soul of Paris.

Notre Dame before the fire

With 14 million visitors per year, Notre Dame is the most-visited monument in France, age-old star of books and films, and literally the center from which all national roads emanating from Paris are measured, as a plaque in the pavement in front of Notre Dame indicates. The intricate wooden structure of its roof support consists of hundreds of 850-year-old oak beams which measures 110 meters long, 13 meters wide and 10 meters high, and is called “the forest” because of its size and the fact that it took a whole forest to produce the wood. Ironically, no electricity was ever installed in this upper structure of very dry wood so as to minimize the fire danger. Built between the 12^th and 14^th centuries, the cathedral has undergone a number of restorations and expansions, but never knew a major fire. 

As groups of shocked onlookers huddled together in the streets of Paris that night, cell phones held aloft to register what their eyes could not believe, the first donations began to pour in, topped by the generous gift of 100 million euros from French billionaire Henri-François Pinault. Before the night was over, his rival and fellow billionaire Bernard Arnault had pledged 200 million euros from his family and the LVMH conglomerate to the rebuilding fund. And the next day it was reported that French company L’Oréal added another 200 million euros to the fund. For once, there was no grumbling about the super rich in France. President Macron confirmed in the morning that thanks to the heroic all-night efforts of 400 firemen, the severely damaged building was saved and that Notre Dame will be rebuilt with funds from the State, as well as corporate and individual donors. At last count, the corporate and private donations have grown to 880 million euros in 48 hours and continue to flow in from all over the world.  

Crown of Thorns

Early reports say that some of the Notre Dame treasures (including the Crown of Thorns and the hair shirt of devout king Louis IX) were saved before the fire spread and that the three large stained-glass rosette windows, dating from the mid-13^th century and each measuring 13 meters in diameter, have survived, partly thanks to the intelligent spraying of the windows with enough cooling water to keep the lead joints from melting, but not enough to break them. They are covered with soot and will need restoring but they are largely intact, while many other windows have exploded in the heat. Less is known about the condition of the three organs, especially the Great Organ which was begun in a smaller version in the 15^th century and after a number of additions attained its current size in the 18^th century with 8000 pipes, 119 stops and five keyboards. Today it is listed as a classified monument. If a quick first inspection is confirmed in the coming days, it was damaged but can probably be repaired, which would be a second narrow escape for this exceptional organ that survived the Revolution in extremis when the then organist began playing the Marseillaise as the insurgents entered the cathedral. 

The cause of the fire is still under investigation but it is believed to have started on the roof, probably around the spire. The priest who was celebrating the 6PM mass, one of five daily masses at Notre Dame, has said that he smelled smoke but saw no fire and that after mass, around 6:45PM, he went outside and saw flames on the roof around the base of the spire. An alarm had sounded earlier but nothing was found. A second alarm pinpointed the location of the flames which by then were shooting upward from the roof.

It is difficult to overstate the importance of this largest of French cathedrals which extends far beyond religion and national borders. The French have always had a strong emotional, almost visceral, attachment to Notre Dame. In this lay country where only 4 percent of the Catholic population observes Sunday mass, it was a bit of a surprise to see people standing in silent clusters, mesmerized and teary-eyed, only to suddenly join in spontaneous prayer or in singing Christian hymns. Overcome by sadness, they lost their reserve and sought comfort in each other, sharing what one of the newspaper headlines called: Notre Drame de Paris. 

Golden cross on main altar at night

On the night of the fire President Macron returned several times to the site, where he got a progress report directly from the commander of the fire brigade and was allowed, shortly after midnight, to step a few meters inside the cathedral for a first glimpse at the interior damage (roof two-thirds gone, spire crashed into pieces right in front of the main altar which was heavily damaged except for the large golden cross that curiously seemed to shine brightly in the darkness).

Among the mass of the roof’s rubble, the copper rooster that had perched proudly on top of the spire with three relics inside it, was found miraculously in one piece though dented and in need of repair. It is not known at this time if the relics were still inside.

The next day on the evening news, Emmanuel Macron praised the firemen and the French people’s strong sense of solidarity in hardship. In France we have always built cathedrals, he said, and we will rebuild this one as well with our rich source of artisans of old—stone cutters, master carpenters, artists and restorers of all kinds—these noble trades that have never died in France. And he promised to see this done in five years, in time for the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Overly optimistic? Perhaps, but we all want to believe it. 

When I look again at our beloved Notre Dame, corseted in her scaffold, bloodied but standing, I see the ultimate survivor and I know she is here to stay.

GILETS JAUNES ON THE WANE; GUN CONTROVERSY; UN SPEAKS OUT; ANTISEMITISM; CLIMATE CHANGE

GILETS JAUNES LOSING SUPPORT

If you are getting fed up with the weekly Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vest) demonstrations in France, you are not alone. Even some of the GJ themselves are dropping out, with the number of active protesters down from an early nationwide high of 287,000 to 32,300 this past weekend (10,000 in Paris alone). For the first time since the start of the GJ movement in mid-November 2018, polls are now indicating that a majority of the French (56% according to a February Elabe poll) want the Saturday protest marches to stop, even though they still support the GJ agenda. They approve of the grassroots group of widely varying ages and backgrounds that succeeded in forcing the government to cancel a planned fuel tax hike, but seem less convinced of the usefulness of continuing demonstrations now that the GJ's initial demands have been met and their new claims are less clear. 

Fouquet's vandalized and set on fire

Saturday, March 16, saw the 18^th consecutive weekly GJ protest turning into one of the most destructive ones since the start of the movement four months ago. Numerous videos taken on the Champs Elysées in Paris attest to the extreme violence against the police who were pelted with paving stones and assaulted even inside their police vans, while the notorious casseurs (Black Bloc hooligans) unleashed their fury against property along the way as they vandalized and set fire to the famous Fouquet’s restaurant, burned down three newsstands, vandalized and pillaged a number of luxury shops, set fire to cars and to a ground-floor bank in an apartment building where police managed to extricate in extremis a young woman and her child from the fire that completely destroyed the bank offices below her. A tragedy had been narrowly avoided, but the murderous hatred that has infected these demonstrations has begun to overshadow the initial call of the Gilets Jaunes for social justice, and switch public sympathy to the merchants and business owners who have been vandalized (sometimes more than once) or forced to close shop on Saturdays. 

Shops vandalized and looted

The incidents showed once again the difficulty of a government that must allow demonstrations, as guaranteed by the Constitution, but is unable to maintain order with an under-equipped and over-extended police force that is nearing exhaustion after 18 consecutive weekends of battle. Police reported that 42 protesters, 17 police officers, and one fireman were injured in this latest demonstration, while 237 people were arrested and 200 held in custody—later reduced to 87 held in custody, all others released.  

President Macron cut short a ski weekend in the Pyrenees to return to Paris for a crisis meeting with his Prime Minister and the Minister of the Interior, and subsequently promised strong measures, to be announced soon, to ensure safe and peaceful demonstrations in the future. We are waiting. 

GUN CONTROVERSY

In addition to the material cost of the widespread destruction, there has been concern for some time over the high number of injuries suffered in the GJ protests. According to Le Monde of January 21^st, they then numbered 1700 protesters and 1000 police officers and included light injuries as well as those requiring hospitalization. They did not include the permanent injuries caused by alleged police brutality for which 157 complaints have been filed and 71 referred to the IGNP (Inspection Générale de la Police Nationale) for further investigation. Among these are the loss of fingers or an eye caused by a rubber bullet fired from an “LBD” gun (lanceur à balles de défense) during heated confrontations. These flashball guns are used by riot police in the frontlines—those charged with pushing back demonstrators and therefore most exposed to the angry mob. After the first serious injuries, these police officers were ordered to wear body cameras, which, together with videos and live reports, serve to help the IGPN to distinguish between legitimate defense and undue force. For instance, a flashball is supposed to be aimed below the shoulder, but when a demonstrator ducks to pick up a paving stone or a teargas cannister and gets hit in the face, is this police brutality or legitimate defense? The continued use of the controversial LBD gun was recently approved by the French Constitutional Council which found this gun to be the best defensive weapon for the riot police when faced with Molotov cocktails, fire bombs, and all manner of heavy projectiles in up-close violent confrontations. 

UNITED NATIONS SPEAKS OUT

UN Human Rights boss Michelle Bachelet

As the flashball debate continued in France, UN Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet called for a full investigation into alleged excessive force by French police against Gilets Jaunes protesters. Her Commission has placed France on its police violence list as the only developed country alongside such wrongdoers as Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Haiti. Ouch! In response, the French government reminded Mrs. Bachelet that it is the armed thugs at these demonstrations who are at the root of the extreme violence against persons and property, and not the embattled police who have been facing hostile crowds every weekend since mid-November and have suffered many injuries in that time. Even so, the French courts are again looking into claims of police violence and, unless convinced otherwise by the latest videos, may well end up banning the controversial LBD gun after all.

ANTISEMITISM

Alain Finkielkraut attacked by Gilets Jaunes

While the Gilets Jaunes appear to be running out of steam with dwindling numbers of marchers, the holdouts have hardened in their demands for a citizens’ referendum and a change in government. The discourse is more strident and hateful, and may have found its way into an outbreak of antisemitism that is never far from the surface in France. During one of the recent Saturday demonstrations, well known French-born philosopher Alain Finkielkraut was stopped near his home in Paris by a group of Yellow Vests who hurled insults at him like Dirty Jew, Go back to Tel Aviv, France is OURS!, and more. Shortly thereafter, antisemitic slogans appeared on some public buildings, posters of the widely admired Simone Veil were covered with swastikas, as were a large number of graves in a Jewish cemetery in Alsace while others were heavily damaged and headstones overturned. 

President Macron paid a visit to the desecrated cemetery and forcefully condemned this religious violence which has no place in a lay country such as France, but no government has been able to effectively eradicate the ever-simmering antisemitic sentiment in this country. 

CLIMATE CHANGE

Greta Thunberg's School Strike for Climate

March 15 was the closing date for President Macron's 2-month-long Grand Débât, but it also was the beginning of a new weekly protest when thousands of French high school students skipped class that Friday afternoon to take to the streets to demand government action on climate change. Following the example of 16-year-old Swedish student Greta Thunberg, who gained worldwide attention by speaking out at the Davos Economic Forum where she accused irresponsible adults (including her audience of captains of industry) of ignoring global warming for too long and called on youth to take over. She had been demonstrating every Friday afternoon since last August with a sit-down strike in front of her school or the Swedish Parliament where her quiet determination soon inspired teenagers all over the world to do the same on Friday afternoons. In the first such protest tens of thousands of French students skipped classes on March 15 to demonstrate, followed the next day by some 45,000 people of all ages who marched peacefully in Paris for climate change action, while the Gilets Jaunes held their noisy and destructive protest in another part of town. The contrast between the quiet climate change march and the slash-and-burn Gilets Jaunes march could not have been greater.  

WHAT'S NEXT?

In an attempt at rapprochement with those who had accused him of being out of touch with ordinary citizens, Emmanuel Macron initiated a Grand Debate of weekly meetings with mayors throughout France between January 15 and March 15. He also proposed that mayors invite citizens to express their concerns in Books of Grievances made available at city halls until March 15. These Books have now been collected and, once digitalized and summarized, will be submitted to the government, which has promised to respond before the end of April. 

On Monday following the disastrous GJ demonstration, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe announced some of the "strong measures" President Macron had referred to earlier:  No more demonstrations on the Champs Elysées as well as two areas in Bordeaux and Toulouse that have been repeatedly vandalized; increased fines for those who participate in unauthorized demonstrations and jail time for the organizers; possible use of surveillance drones to pinpoint and identify outside hooligans; cancellation of the demonstration as soon as the presence of hooligans is detected. Oh, and the Paris police chief was fired for having given confusing instructions on the use of the LBD guns.

It is to be hoped that this will allow the government to take back control. Macron needs to win this one to regain the popularity he lost over claims of "arrogance" and being "the president of the rich" while overtaxing the poor, which was the spark that set off these Gilet Jaunes protests to begin with. Will it be enough to turn voters around? That may depend on his April response to the problems raised in the Debates and the Books of Grievances. In the meantime, he will be watched closely for his dealings with the Yellow Vest crisis and the missteps in his own government. 

Stay tuned...  

RAINBOW OF PROTESTS

A RAINBOW OF PROTESTS

As the weekly Saturday demonstrations of the Gilets Jaunes continue in France, this Yellow Vest movement has spawned a number of other color-coded protest groups. The Foulards Rouges (Red Scarves) have been demonstrating against the violence of the Yellow Vest protests and in defense of the country's governmental institutions; the Gilets Verts (Green Vests) marched against the government's lack of action on climate change and filed a petition in court signed by 1.8 million citizens; and the Gilets Roses (Pink Vests) of licensed childminders have been out protesting against a proposed cut in their unemployment coverage. It's colorful and largely peaceful, except for the Gilets Jaunes (GJ) demonstrations that continue to be plagued by thugs who cause material damage and chaos wherever they go.

Of this colorful palette of protesters, the Yellow Vests remain the most visible and prominent. Although their initial demand for fuel-tax relief was granted, they now want nothing less than a Citizens' Referendum and the resignation of President Macron. On February 2nd, 58,600 GJ demonstrated throughout France (down from 64,000 the week before), denouncing police violence and carrying photos of fellow protesters who had suffered serious injuries, many of them caused by the controversial "flashball" gun. These injuries included at least fourteen cases of an eye lost due to a flashball shot. Just days earlier, the Conseil d'Etat had ruled the continued use of the flashball gun legal because it is the police's best defensive weapon in the face of molotov cocktails or home-made explosives. Crowd-dispersing methods such as tear gas and water cannons have proved inadequate against the armed thugs who inevitably infiltrate these protest marches and are extremely mobile, having at times managed to encircle the police.

French symbol Marianne in yellow vest

While Paris remains the focus of the GJ protests, their Saturday marches have been taking place throughout France and occasionally centered on particular provincial towns, such as Bourges and, most recently, Valence. Given the seemingly inevitable clashes and damage these protests engender, the mayor of Valence called for a lockdown of the city center during the GJ march, asking shops, bars and restaurants on the protest route to stay closed − another loss for these businesses on their busiest day of the week after a poor Christmas season due to road blocks and riots which kept visitors away. It is clear that the right to demonstrate for some can outweigh the right to safety for others.

In response to the GJ crisis and the accusation that he is out of touch with the people, President Macron initiated a nationwide Grand Débat on January 15th, where once a week until mid-March he will meet in different regions with some 60 mayors of small towns to discuss their local problems and grievances in open debate. These town-hall meetings regularly run up to six or seven hours and, even though they can be raucous, they have gained Macron four points in a late-January interactive Harris poll since his all-time low in December − if not for actual improvements then for courage and stamina. Even Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, a less gifted speaker than Macron, has been pressed into service in a show of government outreach and communication where none existed before.

Nevertheless, another recent Elabe poll indicated that two thirds of the French still support the GJ movement and a little over half want their protests to continue during this Grand Débât. Carried by their early success and the people's support, their Facebook orders are "Don't stop now."

On February 5th the Parliament passed a watered-down version of the proposed Loi anticasseurs, which gives the police wider powers to stop thugs (casseurs) from breaking into peaceful demonstrations. No longer will face coverings be allowed and those who break the rules will be registered and banned from future demonstrations. It was a contentious issue, and among those who voted against it (communists and socialists called it "liberticide") were 50 members of Macron's own party.

Macron's party En Marche brought to a halt

At the same time, the CGT, one of France's largest trade unions, called for a nationwide general strike on February 5th to demand fiscal justice and higher wages, and to express their support for the Gilets Jaunes movement. Between 14,000 and 18,000 strikers (depending on sources) marched in Paris and vowed to do the same in different cities every Tuesday − the "Mardis d'Urgence Sociale." Even if this is unlikely to succeed, it points to a convergence of grievances from laborers, employees, self-employed, retirees, and small business owners about over-taxation, loss of purchasing power, and increasing inequality. The resentment is growing − despite Macron's weekly Grand Débât meetings − against a distant government of technocrats obsessed with numbers and budgets who fail to see the results of increased taxation on the lower and middle classes. 

The Cour des Comptes (Court of Auditors) has just issued a warning concerning the growing public deficit as a result of the reduced taxes and increased expenses announced in December, including €10 billion worth of concessions to GJ demands. Consequently, the shortfall for 2019 will amount to 3.2% of GDP instead of the projected 2.8%, and exceed the limit of 3% set by the European Commission.

Considering that France spends a record amount of 56.5% of its budget on public expenses and that no amount of cutting social benefits or public programs will suffice to cover the multi-billion-euro shortfall, there appears to be no other solution than raising taxes elsewhere, including the reinstatement of the hot-potato ISF wealth tax that just won't go away and has now come back as a demand by unions, politicians of the left, and in the weekly town-hall meetings. Even though this tax would only bring in about €5 billion, its psychological value is incalculable. With all his efforts in the weekly grand debates to repair the damage done by his perceived arrogance and favoritism of the rich, Macron will have to carefully weigh whether to reinstate the wealth tax ("give in to the street") or hold firm and risk continued social unrest.

CROSS-BORDER INSULTS

Luigi Di Maio (red tie) with French Gilets Jaunes

While his government is feverishly looking for sources of revenues (such as taxing the American tech giants GAFA on income earned in France but declared in low-tax countries where they have their headquarters; seeking ways to eliminate tax fraud and corruption; etc.), the Italian deputy vice presidents Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio capitalized on the social unrest in France by inciting the Gilets Jaunes to oppose Macron's government. Di Maio, leader of the anti-establishment Five Star movement, even met recently with leaders of the GJs near Paris to offer them his support and the use of his party's web platform, and to invite them to Italy and connect with their counterparts there. Later that day, he declared that "A new Europe is being born with the Yellow Vests" and "The wind of change has crossed the Alps." For Emmanuel Macron this direct political interference on French soil was not only an "outrage against our country" but it was one provocation too many, and he recalled his ambassador to Italy for consultations in Paris.

Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right anti-immigrant League party − always jockeying for first place with his co-vice president Di Maio − had said earlier in a Facebook video: "I hope that the French will rid themselves of a terrible president and will not back his party in the European Parliament elections in May." He is closely allied with Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader who shares Salvini's euroscepticism and anti-immigrant stance, and is Macron's biggest rival at the European elections. 

Savini vs. Macron

Relations between Italy and France had been strained for a while but have now turned toxic, with Di Maio and Salvini surpassing each other in insults and provocative statements about the arrogance of France that "has never stopped colonizing countries in Africa" which they called one of the reasons for the flood of African migrants to Europe. When Macron called their hostile remarks "insignificant", it only heightened the tension and hardened Italy's resolve to whip up the anti-Macron vote in the upcoming European elections. Obviously, the Italian bad boys are trying to score points at home, but their main goal is not to humiliate Macron, but rather to enlarge the populist base and score big at the European Parliament elections.

European Parliament in Strasbourg

With the ongoing Brexit uncertainty, the growing nationalism and europhobia across Europe, and a weakened Germany as pro-European ally, Macron is fragilized indeed and needs all the help he can get to keep the 27-member EU together. He won't get it from neighboring Italy, co-founder of the original European Union but today a disenchanted member, nor from a number of his own fellow countrymen who are hearing the nationalistic siren song of Marine Le Pen and her Italian fellow populists. The stakes are high, and we are looking at the May elections with some trepidation.

At the best of times the French can be an unruly lot, but the Gilets Jaunes movement may have set off something that feels more lasting than the usual street protests that come and go and are soon forgotten (yesterday was Act XIII of their people-supported weekly marches throughout France, with a planned demonstration in front of the National Assembly in Paris). This Facebook-spawned rebellion has found imitators abroad, and in our borderless new Europe might coalesce into a new political force.

Could this happen? Trump happened. 

NEW YEAR - NEW HOPE?

NEW YEAR, NEW HOPE? NOT QUITE YET

Street artist's mural à la Delacroix

The start of a new year comes with the usual personal resolutions and wishes for peace and prosperity to all. This time in France, those wishes included an end of the Yellow Vest demonstrations that have been taking place every Saturday since mid-November 2018 and have won the protesters major concessions from the government at a total estimated cost of €4 billion in actual damage to public property and lost business. (Example: fully two-thirds of all roadside radars in France were vandalized during the demonstrations, with replacement costs varying from €60,000 to €200,000 a piece). At the peak of the destructive protests in December, President Macron went on national television and, recognizing the legitimate concern of the lower middle class for their loss of purchasing power, he granted €10 billion worth of increased wages and tax breaks to low-wage earners and small pensioners, and cancelled the planned fuel tax increase that had set off the Yellow Vest protests on Facebook. 

Radars vandalized

Against expectations, and despite the Yellow Vests' success in obtaining redress, their movement did not die down but has shifted into a harder core of holdouts, who now seem focused on bringing down the Macron government. The agitators' heated rhetoric, the anti-Macron placards, and the inevitable infiltration of "casseurs" (thugs) in the protest marches, have led to attacks on the Arc de Triomphe and on the Ministry of Communications in Paris where protesters drove a piece of heavy construction equipment through the locked gates and entered into the courtyard, where they began breaking windows as police quickly evacuated Government Spokesman Benjamin Griveaux from his office. Elsewhere, protesters had set fire to the préfecture de police in Puy-en-Velay and attacked a gendarmerie in Dijon. The Gilets Jaunes (GJ) movement, which sprang from a widely shared concern over lost purchasing power due to over-taxation, has come to resemble a protest against all government authority and the symbols that represent it, including the police. It still is a leaderless movement without party affiliation, but also without a clear purpose now that its main demands have been met.

In his conciliatory speech in mid December, a visibly uncomfortable President Macron tried to calm the waters by cancelling the hated fuel tax increase and meeting most of the protesters' demands. Two weeks later in his New Year's address to the nation he took a firmer line as he called for order to be restored and outlined his plans for implementing his proposed reforms, including pension reform and a tightening of unemployment rules − a delicate task in the current climate. He also invited all citizens to participate in a National Debate, organized in town halls across France between January 15 and March 15, where people can express their concerns and suggestions in a Register of Grievances which would then be transmitted to the government in Paris and acted on this spring. A gesture toward those who have felt neglected and "unheard" by this Administration and, in the words of Prime Minister Philippe, a chance at "building together the France of Tomorrow." 

And yet... in Act VIII of the GJ's January 5 protest in Paris, the demonstrations deteriorated again into chaos and vandalism, but also with acts of extreme violence against the riot police. When the marchers deviated from the designated route and started crossing a bridge that leads to the National Assembly, police tried to stop them but were attacked by a mob that included an ex-professional heavyweight boxer who was filmed punching a policeman into retreat and kicking another one while he was down. Scenes of violence also occurred in Toulon, Calais and Rouen. Clearly, the president's attempts at appeasement were not working.

As more facts and figures are coming out, the collateral cost of this uprising is cause for alarm: to date, more than 43,000 claims have been filed for full or partial unemployment benefits following temporary or permanent business closures. Among those closures are family businesses such as small trucking companies that have not been able to deliver due to weeks of road blockages and toll closings, or shop owners who have lost most of their Christmas sales that represent 20-30 percent of their annual income. One may wonder if the GJ were aware of how much their actions would hurt those they claim to represent.

Loss of confidence is another problem: The country's business outlook fell in December to the lowest point since November 2016 and new orders declined for the first time in 34 months, contrasting sharply with the strong growth recorded throughout 2018, according to IHS Markit.

Prime Minister Philippe announces sanctions

In a televised response on January 7, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe announced that, while upholding the right to demonstrate, the government would no longer allow unsanctioned protest marches; all masks or other face coverings would be prohibited at future demonstrations; a police file would be set up of identified casseurs who would be banned from future protests and also be held accountable for the damage they caused (casseurs payeurs). Where their violent acts used to be punished with a fine, these would henceforth be treated as a criminal offence. Laudable as this proposed new law (to be voted on in early February) may be, it seems timid in the context of today's inflamed mood and the obvious disregard for the rules of civil society, as evidenced by the GJ reactions on Facebook and Twitter and their unflagging determination to keep demonstrating. A nervous government decided to deploy 80,000 riot police throughout France for Act IX on Saturday, January 12. It paid off when 84,000 protesters showed up (vs. 50,000 the week before), mostly in Bourges, a historic city in the center of France, and in Paris, but no serious incidents were reported. On the other hand, the GJ are considering a change of tactics and called on their followers to massively withdraw their money from the "banks that really run this country" − i.e. a bank run. Even though economists don't believe this will do serious damage to the banking system, it is further proof of the hardening of the GJ movement.

President Macron's generous response in December may have been interpreted as weakness of a president in trouble, who is now hostage to the success of a faceless movement that has tapped into that well of discontent that seems an integral part of the French soul. Has the lid come off Pandora's box? It seems unlikely that this crisis will pass without more demands for one thing or another by a variety of people who have had legitimate claims for years, such as nurses or teachers, who may feel encouraged to press their own charges now. And in the meantime, the GJ's original protest against the fuel tax has evolved into a nebulous demand for "a better life" and the resignation of President Macron.

In changing course and canceling his fuel tax Macron had sought to stop the violence of this leaderless, unknown quantity called Gilets Jaunes by choosing the slippery slope of concessions. It did not stop the violence and with the growing loss of confidence in his government it is as yet hard to see where this will end. According to a January 9 Elabe poll for BFMTV, 60% of French people still support the GJ today. In a letter to the French people to be published next Tuesday, Macron will try to diffuse the tension and reassure the country, but the radicalized GJ are unlikely to stop demonstrating and may force Macron into repressing their movement or negotiating with it. Now more than ever, it would be good to see some senior, seasoned politicians among the young technocrats of Emmanuel Macron's government.

Awaiting further developments, Macron has cancelled his attendance at the World Economic Forum on January 22-25 in Davos due to his "busy agenda" (a more elegant explanation than President Trump's cancellation due to "the Democrats' intransigence").

Di Maio (left) and Salvini announcing support for GJ

Clearly, Macron is facing some serious obstacles at home today, but also on the European front where Italy's joint vice-presidents of the extreme right and left, Matteo Salvini and Luigi di Maio, have given their enthusiastic and public endorsement to the Gilets Jaunes and encouraged them to fight on. Add to that the unresolved Brexit problem, the growing nationalism in Eastern Europe as well as a newly formed extreme-right, Europhobic party in Spain, and Macron's plans for reforming France and strengthening the European Union seem a fading dream today. What started with such promise less than two years ago − a young president with a project to reform an entrenched, tradition-bound and rules-hampered government − may be undone by a Facebook-fueled wave of insurrection that could be a throwback to the 1968 student rebellion that ultimately led to the resignation of Charles de Gaulle. 

May wisdom inform our rulers and preserve peace in this complicated but democratic society with its history of revolutions from which today's laws and freedoms have sprung.
That is my New Year's wish.